Data Based Global Modeling Seminar

This course is an introduction to Global Vision's approach to constructing computational models for global forecasting. These models cover key issues for human decision making, including strategic planning for international security, public health, and sustainable development. This requires the approach to combine diverse quantitative forecasting techniques, make connections among a broad spectrum of human and environmental factors, and validate the forecasts of the models against new observations. The course will prepare the student for constructing global models, validating them, using their forecasts in business and national policy decision making, and actively improving them for better forecasts.

Seminar Leader

Paul R. Williamson, Ph.D.
Global Vision, Inc.

Cost

Location

Schedule

The course will be taught in three full-day sessions.

Course Objectives

The word "model" covers a lot of ground. First there is the question of what it means to have a model, and various meanings have been attached to the word. So one of the objectives is to impart to you an understanding of some of these meanings. In addition there are important differences, occasionally explicit but usually not, as to which kinds of modeling could or should be applied to the study of international relations. A second objective is that you become familiar with the distinctions. A corollary is that, by the end of the course, you should have thought enough about the issue to form your own opinion (possibly a reasoned decision to withhold judgement) and be capable of intelligibly articulating it and your basis of arriving at it.

This still leaves quit a bit of room, given the considerable assortment of global models and the phenomena to which one or another has been applied. Since no one of these approaches is satisfactory, but each contains a valuable aspect, I believe it important to address this variety. Thus we will cover the several variants suggested in the major headings below, at the cost that our examination of some areas (global war, international trade, ecology) will be very incomplete. Finally, while we will consider ideas informed by varying degrees of evidence, the emphasis will be on models defined in terms of quantitative, reproducible evidence, concepts with which you will become (or may already be) familiar.

Seminar Requirements

We seek to grasp and integrate some rather disparate material, concerning concepts and methods of inquiry, and various empirical phenomena. This requires independent evaluation, careful integration, diligent reading and note taking, and active listening and speaking. The three sessions will emphasize discussion rather than lecture. There is considerable reading.

Topics

Session 1

Session 2

Evidence For Cycles

Variations in the Distribution of Material Capabilities

Secular Disequilibria: "Modernization"

Evidence for Inter-Century, Pre- Post- Nuclear, and Other Discontinuities and Shifts

Global War Modeling

Session 3

Registration

Please contact Dr. Paul Williamson at Global Vision.

Paul R. Williamson, President
Global Vision, Inc.
P. O. Box 4394
Ann Arbor, MI 48106-4394

paulrw@globechange.org
www.globechange.org
734-904-3472

Global Vision, Inc., Ann Arbor, Michigan, is a nonprofit, tax-exempt organization. Gifts are deductible as charitable contributions in the United States.

Global Vision Seminar: Data Based Global Modeling

Course Description