Global Vision - Resource Directory: Issues Areas: War, War Risk - Integrated human-environmental computer-based global forecasting to aid strategic planning

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce
An Expected Utility Theory of International Conflict
An Exploratory Study
American Political Science Rev.
Dec.
1980
page/pp 917-931.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce
The War Trap
Yale University Press
New Haven, CT.
1981

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
http://www.thebulletin.org/
home page

Center for Systemic Peace
http://members.aol.com/CSPmgm

Centre for Defense and International Security Stud
Security Studies
Terrorism
CDISS Terrorism Programme
http://www.cdiss.org/terror.htm

Choucri, N. and R. North
Nations in Conflict
Freeman
San Francisco.
1975

Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio
Political Reliability Theory and War in the International System
American J. Political Science
Vol 29, Nbr 1, Feb.
1985
page/pp 45-68.

Correlates of War 2
http://cow2.la.psu.edu/
attribute, event data

Dewey, E. R.
The 177-Year Cycle in War, 600 BC - AD 1957
Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Pittsburgh, PA.
1964

Diehl, Paul F. and Gary Goertz
Territorial Changes and Militarized Conflict
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 32, Nbr 1, March.
1988
page/pp 103-122.

Dimmer, Ronald A., Jr.
The Improved Power/Alliance Polarity Hypothesis of International Conflict
Pol. Sci. undergrad. prog.
Univ. of Mich., Ann Arbor, MI.
1990

Eckhardt, William
Civilizations, Empires, and Wars
J. Peace Research
Vol 27, Nbr 1.
1990
page/pp 9-24.

Ellis, Stephen
The Indirect Effects of the September 11 Events
and Their Aftermath in Relation to Drugs Trade, Arms Trade, International Crime and Financial Crime
at International Meeting on Global Trends and Huma
Before and After September 11; Geneva.
International Council on Human Rights Policy
Jan. 10-12.
2002
http://www.ichrp.org/ac/excerpts/68.doc

Etheredge, Lloyd S.
Can Governments Learn?
American Foreign Policy and Central American Revolutions
Pergamon
New York.
1985

Ferris, W.
Power Capabilities of the Nation-States
Lexington Books
Lexington, MA.
1973

Frontline
Roots of Terrorism
Public Broadcasting System
2002
http://www.pbs.org/frontline/roots

Fuchs, W.
Formeln zur Macht
Deutsch Verlags-Anstalt
Stuttgart, Germany.
1965

Gilpin, Robert
War and Change in World Politics
Cambridge Univ. Press
New York.
1981

Global Security Institute, The
http://www.gsinstitute.org

Gochman, C. S. and Z. Maoz
Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976
Procedures, Patterns, and Insights
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 28, Dec.
1984
page/pp 585-616.

Goldstein, Joshua S.
Long Cycles
Prosperity and War in the Modern Age
Yale Univ. Press
New Haven, CT.
1988

Goldstein, Joshua S.
Long Waves in War, Production, Prices, and Wages
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 31, Nbr 4, Dec.
1987
page/pp 573-600.

Henry L. Stimson Center, The
http://www.stimson.org

History News Network.
HNN Index
History of Terrorism
George Mason Univ.
http://hnn.us/articles/299.html

Horvath, William J.
A Statistical Model for the Duration of Wars and Strikes
Behavioral Science
Vol 13, Nbr 1, Jan.
1968
page/pp 18-28.
hazard rate

Horvath, William J. and Caxton C. Foster
Stochastic Models of War Alliances
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol VII, Nbr 2, June.
1963
page/pp 110-116.
hazard rate

House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence,
on Intelligence, US
Report of the Joint Inquiry into the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001
July 24.
2003
http://news.findlaw.com/cnn/docs/911rpt/index.html

Houweling, Henk W. and J. B. Kune
Do Outbreaks of War Follow a Poisson-Process?
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 28, Nbr 1, March.
1984
page/pp 51-61.
hazard rate

Houweling, Henk W. and Jan G. Siccama
Studies of War
Martinus Nijhoff Publishers
Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
1988

Houweling, Henk W. and Jan G. Siccama
The Epidemiology of War, 1816-1980
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 29, Nbr 4, Dec.
1985
page/pp 661-663.

Huth, Paul K.
Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War
Yale University Press
New Haven, CT.
1988

Isard, Walter
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
http://www.crp.cornell.edu/peps/

Leng, Russell J.
When Will They Ever Learn?
Coercive Bargaining in Recurrent Crises
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 27, Sept.
1983
page/pp 379-419.

Maoz, Z.
Paths to Conflict
International Dispute Initiation, 1816-1976
Westview
Boulder, CO.
1982

Midlarsky, M. I.
On War
Political Violence in the International System
The Free Press
New York.
1975

Morrow, James D.
A Spatial Model of International Conflict
American Political Science Review
Vol 80, Apr.
1986
page/pp 1131-1150.

Morrow, James D.
A Twist of Truth
A Reexamination of the Effects of Arms Races on the Occurrence of War
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 33, Nbr 3, Sept.
1989
page/pp 500-529.

Naroll, Raoul and Vern L. Bullough, Frada Naroll
Military Deterrence in History
State Univ. of New York Press
99 Washington Ave., Albany, NY 12210.
1974

Olson, M.
The Rise and Decline of Nations
Yale University Press
New Haven, CT.
1982

PBS Frontline
Gunning for Saddam
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/gunning/

Peace and Conflict Research, Department of
Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(accessed via link--lower right--from D. Peace - Conflict R. home page)
Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
http://www.peace.uu.se

Peace Science Society (International)
http://pss.la.psu.edu/

Pudiate, Paul R.
Modeling Long Cycles in War and Production
at Third World Peace Science Congress
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD.
Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research
Univ. of Ill., 512 E. Chalmers St., Champaign, IL
1988
periodicity

Rapoport, Anatol
Lewis F. Richardson's Mathematical Theory of War
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 1, Sept.
1957
page/pp 249-299.

Rasler, Karen A. and William R. Thompson
Global Wars, Public Debts, and the Long Cycle
World Politics
Vol XXXV, Nbr 4, July.
1983
page/pp 489-516.

Richardson, Lewis F.
Statistics of Deadly Quarrels
The Boxwood Press / Quadrangle Books
Pittsburgh / Chicago.
1960

Rummel, R. J.
Dimensions of Conflict Behavior Within Nations,1946-1959
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 10, Nbr 1, March.
1966
page/pp 65-73.

Schwartz, Steven I.
Deterrence vs. Preemption
Assessing U.S. Nuclear Policy
at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
Mar. 19.
2003
http://vmsstreamer1.fnal.gov/VMS_Site_02/Lectures/Colloquium/Schwartz/vf001.htm

Singer, J. David
Accounting for International War
The State of the Discipline, second location
J. Peace Research
Vol XVIII, Nbr 1.
1980
page/pp 1-18.

Singer, J. David and et al (eds)
Correlates of War Project, Dept. Political Sci.
Univ. of Mich., Ann Arbor, MI 48109.
http://www.umich.edu/~cowproj/

Singer, J. David and Melvin Small
Alliance aggregation and the onset of war, 1815-1945
in J. David Singer (ed.)
Quantitative International Politics. Insights and
Free Press
New York.
1968
page/pp 247-286.

Singer, J. David and Melvin Small
The Wages of War, 1816-1965
A Statistical Handbook
Wiley
New York.
1972

Singer, J. David and Paul R. Williamson,
Walter R. Mebane, Jr. Carl P. Simon
From War to War
The Role of Major Power Decline and Response, 1816-1965
Proposal submitted to
U.S. National Science Foundation.
Dept. Pol. Sci.
Univ. of Mich., Ann Arbor, MI 48109. 11 Jan..
1989

Siverson, Randolph M. and Harvey Starr
Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War
Amer. Political Science Review
Vol 84, Nbr 1, March.
1990
page/pp 47-67.

Small, Melvin and J. David Singer
Resort to Arms
International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980
Sage
Beverly Hills, CA.
1980

Snyder, G. H. and P. Diesing
Conflict Among Nations
Princeton University Press
Princeton, NJ.
1977

Stoll, Richard J.
Major Power Interstate Conflict in the Post-World War II Era
An Increase, a Decrease, or No Change?
Western Political Quarterly
Vol 35, Nbr 4.
1982
page/pp 587-605.

Terrorism Research Center, The
http://www.terrorism.com

Thompson, William R.
Cyclical Transformations, Capability Concentration and War
An Ecumenical View
in W. R. Thompson (ed.), World System Perspectives
Sage
Beverly Hills, CA.
1983
periodicity

Tillema, Herbert K.
Foreign Overt Military Intervention in the Nuclear Age
J. Peace Research
Vol 26, Nbr 2.
1989
page/pp 179-195.

Vasquez, John
http://www.vanderbilt.edu/psci/vasquez/
data in spss format

Vasquez, John
The Probability Of War, 1816-1992
Presidential Address to the International Studies
New Orleans, LA.
Mar. 25.
2002
http://www.vanderbilt.edu/psci/vasquez/isaprz.doc

Vasquez, John A.
The Steps to War
Toward a Scientific Explanation of Correlates of War Findings
World Politics
Vol XL, Nbr 1, Oct.
1987
page/pp 108-145.

Vasquez, John and Marie T. Henehan
Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816-1992
J. Peace Research
Vol 38, Nbr 2.
2001
page/pp 123-138.

Wallace, Michael D.
Alliance Polarization, Cross-Cutting, and International War
A Measurement Procedure and Some Preliminary Evidence
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 17, Nbr 4, Dec.
1973
page/pp 575-604.

Wallace, Michael D.
War and Rank Among Nations
Lexington Books
Lexington, MA.
1973

Wayman, Frank W. and J. David Singer
Evolution and Directions for Improvement in the Correlates of War Project Methodologies
in J. David Singer and Paul Diehl (eds.)
Measuring the Correlates of War.
Univ. of Michigan Press
Ann Arbor, MI.
1990

Weede, Erich
Overwhelming Preponderance as a Pacifying Condition Among Contiguous Asian Dyads, 1950-1969
J. Conflict Resolution
Vol 20, Nbr 3, Sept.
1976
page/pp 395-412.

Wilkinson, David
Deadly Quarrels
Lewis F. Richardson and the Statistical Study of War
University of California Press
Berkeley, CA.
1980

Williamson, Paul R.
Investigation of Periodicities in International Conflict by Graphical Means
at Amer. Pol. Sci. Assn. annual meeting, Atlanta.
Correlates of War project, Dept. Pol. Sci.
Univ. of Mich., Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Aug. - Sept.
1989

Williamson, Paul R. and Myron S. Karasik
A Neural Network Approach to Modeling Inter- and Intra-State Conflict
at Peace Science Society (International)
Urbana, IL, February 23, 2001.
Global Vision, Inc.
PO Box 4394, Ann Arbor, MI 48106.
2003
peace-s-society_941106_rev031014.doc
written 2001; author info rev. 2003

Zinnes, Dina A. and Harvey Starr, B. Hill,
S. Portnoy
From War to War
Stochastic Models of Wartime Alignment Patterns
in M. D. Ward (ed.)
Theories, Models and Simulations in International
Westview Press
Boulder, CO.
1985

Resource Directory: Issue Areas

War, war risk