Global Vision - Dynamic Global Modeling, Overview - Integrated human-environmental computer-based global forecasting to aid strategic planning

Overview

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What is a Dynamic Global Model?

By model we mean a computer program, plus directions for using it.

The program and directions come, in turn, from a story which is told using mathematics as well as words, about what is happening in whatever the program is representing.

What makes a model global is that the story is about what is happening in all parts of our planet.

What makes a model dynamic is that it estimates changes, from one time period to another. The period could be a day, week, month, year, decade - depending on exactly what type of change is to be estimated. These change estimates are the key ingredient of forecasting.

What are the goals of the Global Vision dynamic global modeling program?

In sum, they are to develop, test and apply …

A dynamic general forecasting global model that is time-specific, numeric-computational, coupled, empirically validated, and publicly available;

Sub-models that are linked to the general model and tailored to the more specific concerns of individual public and private users.

“Time-specific” means the forecasts will state a future time or range of times to which the forecast applies. In addition, clearly there are realistic limits to how far into the future a given process or system can be forecast within a stated degree of accuracy or reliability. The GVI program will seek to ascertain those limits.

“Numeric-computational” means the forecasts will be in the form of numbers (for example, how much of some quantity such as economic production; or how probable some event such as outbreak of war) and these numbers will be produced by a computer.

“Coupled” means that the model estimates the effects from one area or process to another, and represents those estimates in its calculations. This means representing the effects, on each other, of various regions, countries, and localities from all parts of the planet. “Coupled” also means representing the effects of various processes—environmental, economic, political, conflictual, etc.—on each other. To see a schematic illustration of how the idea of couplings works, click here. couplings-general.pdf

“Empirically validated” means each part of the model will be tested against the highest available quality of historical or other factual data on the past behavior of the process or system represented by that part of the model. This will be a continuing process, in which testing will become increasingly detailed and thorough, and the model will be revised to reflect the results of the tests.

A “sub-model” is an applied model that uses all the capabilities of the general model, plus has additional capabilities of its own to address some specific practical problem or concern of a user. The flow of information will always be one-way, from general model to each sub-model. See the pages on Our Mission, and How Global Vision Can Help a Business.

Global Vision presently seeks to develop such a model. Global Vision’s approach to this task is unique:

GVI believes in paying close attention to couplings; it aims to develop quantitative connections among indicators in all factors (not just among a few, such as the economic factors of conventional econometric forecasting).

GVI also believes in using country-specific international political data, other historical and social data, and environmental data, as well as economic data, to empirically test—to the extent practicable—all aspects of a model.

GVI is committed to consider a very wide spectrum of traditional and novel techniques in constructing a dynamic model, including econometric, climate, conflict behavior, and other conventional modeling approaches but also more recent ones such as artificial neural network and agent-based approaches.

Finally, GVI is paying close attention to the time-specific, numeric-computational, and applied sub-model aspects.

No other commercial or academic forecasting group proposes to integrate all the above elements in the thoroughgoing manner just indicated.

For further discussion, click here.

As a preliminary step, we are working to develop a much smaller demonstration global model. The current version of this demo is available here.

To view our estimate of the steps, timing, and cost to start-up, of a full-scale GVI dynamic global model concept, click on the pdf below.

proj-exp_0005.pdf

As it develops, the Global Vision general model will gradually come to describe hundreds, possibly thousands, of different types of events and changes throughout the world—in war, politics, economics, culture, climate, environment, disease—and other societal and non-human environmental aspects that significantly affect human welfare and that depend, mutually, on each other in a multitude of ways. The model will come to reflect a balanced, integrated picture of the most important connections among these aspects and among the various geographic regions of our planet.

To see a more technical description how GVI proposes to build such a full-scale global model, go to Technical Description of Modeling.