Global Vision - Dynamic Global Modeling, Demo - Integrated human-environmental computer-based global forecasting to aid strategic planning

As a preliminary step to a full-scale, fully functional global forecasting model, we are working to develop a much smaller demonstration global model. This demo model will illustrate our ideas and it will be the core on which we build to create the full-scale model. Click here for a technical description.

Current demo prototype here

This demonstration global model simulates the coupling of internal and external national conflict behavior to national economic growth. This is done on a dyadic basis, meaning the impact of each specific country on each other country is calculated. These conflict events are probabilistic, representing the role of chance.

Future development plans aim for the following features, among others: 1) Full implementation of Monte Carlo technique (combining the effects of multiple simulation runs); 2) Full representation of conflict behavior - economic growth couplings (that is, representing the affects in both directions instead of just conflict on growth, as in the present version); 3) User choice of multiple global models, including models created by other parties; 4) Within the Global Vision demo model, multiple options for specifying model parameters and scenarios; 5) Model parameters empirically inferred from past historical data provided by the World Bank, the Correlates of War project (University of Michigan, Pennsylvania State University, and elsewhere), and other sources.

Also in our plan is to provide more documentation and instructions for use, now mostly lacking.

This model is an embryonic dynamic model -- a very modest beginning -- on which we will build to enlarge and further develop it, and to include many other kinds of global changes and events in addition to economic growth and conflict.

(See http://www.globechange.org/technical_description.php and the links there, particularly in the section on "Couplings".)

Demo

Demonstration Global Forecasting Model