| FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 23 |
| 7:30 pm |
|
Keynote Address by Edward O. Wilson, |
| |
|
Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge |
| 9:00 pm |
|
Reception |
| |
|
|
| SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, all sessions |
| Moderator |
|
J. David Singer |
| Discussants |
|
Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow, Polachek, Wayman, Williamson |
| |
|
|
| SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 |
| 8:00 am |
|
Welcome
Bueno de Mesquita and Wayman
|
| 8:25 am |
|
Williamson,
Organizing Diverse Contributions to Global Forecasting |
| 8:50 am |
|
Luterbacher and Wiegandt,
The Future of Environmental Scarcities and Conflict |
| 9:20 am |
|
Sprinz,
Political Modeling of Long-Term Policy Problems |
| 9:50 am |
|
Break |
| 10:10 am |
|
Farmer,
Modeling Sustainable Development |
| 10:40 am |
|
Holland,
The Contribution of Complex Systems Theory |
| 11:10 am |
|
Tago,
The Future of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation |
| 11:40 am |
|
Discussants |
| 12:10pm |
|
Break |
| 12:20 pm |
|
Lunch - discussion by all present |
| 1:20 pm |
|
Cioffi-Revilla,
Severity of War as a Function of Time |
| 1:50 pm |
|
Karasik,
Cultural Collisions: Forecasting the Evolution of History Using
'Boundary Value Behaviors' |
| 2:20 pm |
|
Alexander,
Predictability in Evolutionary Biology, Especially as Applied
to Human Sociality |
| 2:50 pm |
|
Schneider,
Bankers as Oracles? Forecasting Political Developments
with the Help of Financial Markets |
| 3:20pm |
|
Break |
| 3:40 pm |
|
Wayman,
Prediction of Macro-Social Behavior from Individual and
Biological Levels of Analysis: Problems in Evolution of Conflict |
| 4:10pm |
|
Discussants |
| 4:40pm |
|
Discussion by all present |
| |
|
|
| SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25 |
| 8:00 am |
|
Wilkinson,
Problems in Evolution of South Asian Civilization's Patterns
of Systemic Polarity |
| 8:30 am |
|
Williamson
System Change, Linkage, Richardson Processes, and
Utility Maximizing - Application of a Physical Analogue
|
| 9:00 am |
|
Mayer,
Critical Time Scales in Neural and Global Systems
|
| 9:30 am |
|
Discussants |
| 10:00 am |
|
Break |
| 10:20 am |
|
Discussion by all present |
| 11:10 am |
|
Summation and closing remarks |
| |
|
|
| CONFERENCE ADJOURNS, FOLLOWED BY 11th ANNUAL MEETING OF GLOBAL VISION, INC |
(Open to all)
| 11:30 am |
|
Global forecasting program discussion |
| 12:30 pm |
|
Business meeting |
| |
|
|
