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Activities

What Does Global Vision Do?

Global Vision currently works on the following projects:

Develops scientific techniques to dynamically model societal events and changes, using computers.

This work is described elsewhere on site, especially in the pages on Dynamic Global Modeling.
Maintains the web site you are now viewing.

This site introduces the concept, applications, rationale, and methods of computational global forecasting. In addition, it supports a resource directory that combines print and online bibliographical references, together with links to the sites of various other organizations engaged in research or information development of use to global modeling and forecasting. This directory currently contains about 900 items.

This site has recently undergone a major re-design and expansion, with the result that you now see. This work used professional web site design and programming assistance provided by the Nonprofit Enterprise at Work (NEW) Center, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Funds came from the corporate sponsor SBC.

Two planned developments are described below, under Future Plans.
Presents – facilitates discussion of global modeling-forecasting ideas and work at public meetings.

Meetings have been held / presentations given, in

~ Ann Arbor, Michigan
~ Atlanta
~ Champaign-Urbana, Illinois
~ Chicago
~ Los Angeles
~ New Haven, Connecticut
~ San Diego
~ Bolton (Toronto), and
~ Tucson, Arizona.

These meetings involve both other interested scientists and the general public. For the past 5 years, GVI has coordinated its annual meetings with those of the Peace Science Society (International), an academic organization.

As they become known, plans for future meetings will be posted on the News page of this web site.

A projected scientific conference is mentioned below, under Future Plans.
Publishes proposals and findings.

Numerous (more than 10) reports, articles and papers have been published or otherwise circulated, dealing with the concept of computational global modeling and on the progress of the Global Vision development program. In addition, a Global Vision, Inc. brochure has been published. References to and, when GVI is the publisher, copies of these materials are available on request.

Many of these materials are online.

Future plans include ...

Develop web-based pilot demonstration of a computational global forecasting program.

This will be a small-scale model reflecting research currently underway to connect economic growth and violent conflict within and between nations. This connection will illustrate the kind of connection that is missed by ordinary (disjointed, non-computational, non-dynamic, untested by historical data, or all the above) studies of economics and violent conflict.

This program will illustrate the approach, methods, and features we visualize for the full-scale global forecasting program.

It will be accessible to any user, via a graphical user interface located on this Global Vision site.
e-publish, on this site, additional materials pertinent to computational, dynamic, historical data-validated global forecasting-modeling.

The present authorship is too narrow, involving in all cases one author (Williamson), in collaboration with other authors. The goal is to enlist a variety of contributors and points of view.
Create a data base version of the online Resource Directory.

The current Resource Directory is a static collection of print and online publication—organization entries, organized into 3 lists: the first showing the most pertinent online resources, the second showing materials organized under the several human problem areas that we believe need to be addressed in a global model, the third showing materials organized under various scientific research methods.

We will replace these lists with an interactive data base in which the user can select entries using a variety of scientific method, problem area, and other search criteria.
Help organize and stage global forecasting conferences.

Planning is underway for a set of scientific conferences on global forecasting in the spring-summer of 2005. The current proposal is for 2 sessions, the first at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, the second at New York University. They will be jointly sponsored by the University of Michigan Faculty Research Club, the Center for Conflict Resolution and Multilateral Cooperation at NYU, and Global Vision.
Teach people how to use computational global models to do forecasting.

We have already begun this aspect with our public programs and with this web site. These vehicles will be further developed and others, such as web-interactive and classroom instruction, will be undertaken as funds and working computational models become available.
Expand the pilot project into a fully functioning computational dynamic global model—the primary goal of Global Vision.

We will expand the modeling to combine societal factors with weather and other environmental factors.

We will begin to apply such models to actually forecast future world events and changes, using computers, and to assess the accuracy of such forecasts.

This step awaits the results of the pilot project and the availability of adequate funding.

How quickly we expand our focus to carry out these future plans depends most significantly on our future level of funding.