PI: George S. Cowan, Global Vision, Inc.
PI: Paul R. Williamson, Global Vision, Inc.
Our goal is to help bring the study of the Earth system into a modern scientific paradigm by using genetic programming (GP) as an umbrella for alternative methods of dynamic modeling, where the couplings among nominally distinct subjects are central. In the current proposal, consideration of these subjects will be limited to just three: violent human conflict phenomena plausibly affect, and are affected by, economic and disease-transmission phenomena, which also affect each other. For just one of many types of couplings, wars may directly impact health by disrupting the means of delivering health care and, of course, by causing death and injury. (For a more complete range of couplings, see the Coupling Diagram at http://...) Though of varying coverage and quality, data are available in each of our three initial areas. We propose to create and validate scientific hypotheses and forecasts that test the usefulness of attending to all directions of causality among our three subjects, using the GP framework of methods described below.
More specifically, we will (1) give more quantitative emphasis than usual in some fields, e.g., global politics; (2) act in recognition that global issues and phenomena transcend individual fields; (3) provide ways for theory to guide or constrain the data driven search for models; and (4) ensure the usefulness of the Coupled-System Modeling Tool as part of a communication and data gathering site for experts, amateurs, policy makers, and concerned global citizens.
The proposed Coupled-System Modeling Tool has great intellectual merit. It extends previous global forecasting efforts by simultaneously considering: the dynamic unfolding of multiple social and environmental phenomena, the couplings that drive the dynamics, the increasing availability of relevant data, the calculation and clear presentation of ex post and ex anti validation statistics, and all at a global scale with geographic couplings. It assists the science of this coupled system by making explicit the connection between (1) computer-aided formation of scientific concepts; (2) statement of theories in a form for statistical validation, scientific critique, reformulation, education, and use as building blocks for additional theories; and (3) automated use of the theories to forecast the consequences of policies. The team consists of experienced scientists with widely divergent scientific fields and scientific activities, but overlapping in the area of constructing and using mathematical and statistical models. This combination will provide a basis for bringing together concepts from the separate fields into coupled global models with a system to support the process of developing and using coupled models. The resulting software and web site will form a platform for cross-cutting studies that bridge nominally separate domains. Scientists will be assisted in confirming or disconfirming statements about the interrelatedness of fields. Resources include proximity to and association with a major university and access to Global Vision’s community of scientists with an interest in Earth system modeling (GVI 2008; GVI 2005).
The proposed activity will have great impact on the scientific and policy communities. By juxtaposing time series in a system that provides the capability for modeling their interactions, we will expose new territory for scientific discovery. The resulting models will be available for students to explore and compare. The activity will implement a new scientific and policy networking utility around models, forecasting, and the assumptions on which they are based. Besides publication, the models and the modeling system will be available as open source. As to society as a whole, citizens and policy makers will be able to propose models for social and environmental concerns, observe the statistical validity of their models, and forecast the results of alternative policies. This will provide a forum for the development, disclosure, discussion, and testing of policies which should enrich the political life of the US and, more broadly, global society, and form a basis for better decision making at both the individual and national levels.